Ukraine War Takes a Dangerous, Unpredictable Turn

Russia North Korea: The Ukraine conflict is escalating in ways that are alarming and hard to predict. North Korea’s decision to dispatch a minimum of 3,000 troops to Russia marks a significant move in an extensive effort to bolster Vladimir Putin’s military actions in Ukraine. This development carries substantial ramifications for the ongoing war and global stability.

Firstly, it indicates that the Russian military is facing a critical shortage of personnel and resources. Since the partnership treaty signed by Putin and Kim Jong-un in June, North Korea has already supplied Russia with over 1 million artillery shells. Now, Kim is sending North Korean soldiers, many from elite Special Forces units, to strengthen the inadequately equipped forces that Russian commanders are sending into battle. Since the start of the war in February 2022, around 115,000 Russian soldiers have reportedly lost their lives, with an additional 500,000 wounded— a staggering toll compared to the Soviet Union’s 15,000 casualties over a decade in Afghanistan, which contributed to the downfall of the Communist regime.

Ukrainians might see Putin’s evident reliance on a nation like North Korea—one of the poorest regimes in the world—as a potentially positive signal. However, the introduction of fresh troops, undergoing training in Russia’s Far East and possibly ready for deployment within a month, could revitalize the Russian military’s firepower and morale at a critical moment when they are beginning to counter Ukraine’s advances.

On a wider scale, large cargo planes have been observed making trips from Russia to North Korea. Analysts suggest these flights could be transporting technical equipment to assist North Korea in developing long-range ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads. This shift is noteworthy, as it marks a significant change in Russia’s historical stance on nuclear nonproliferation—during the Cold War, the Soviet Union actively restricted its allies from acquiring nuclear capabilities.

While Putin initially sought assistance from China’s Xi Jinping, who provided some economic help but refrained from sending weapons, he has since turned to Iran for drones and now North Korea for ammunition and soldiers. It’s plausible that Kim’s resource-strapped military asked for something in return, possibly missile technology, as part of the exchange.

Historically, North Korea has sent troops to assist allied nations; for instance, in 1973, they dispatched forces to assist Egypt during the Yom Kippur War against Israel. This latest troop deployment of 3,000—first reported by South Korean media and confirmed by U.S. officials—is considerably larger than past foreign missions, with reports hinting at an additional 7,000 troops being organized. The roles these soldiers will take on in Ukraine remain uncertain, and their motivation is questionable given that many may not speak Russian. Reports suggest that Russia is compensating them with $2,000 per month, a significant sum in North Korea, although it is likely the Pyongyang government will appropriate those earnings.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials have indicated that if North Korean troops engage on the battlefield in Ukraine, they will be treated as legitimate targets. Anticipating a potential drop in morale among these troops, Ukrainians have begun distributing flyers that encourage defections, promising favorable treatment to those who abandon their Russian commanders and the oppressive regime back home. Regardless of the outcomes, the Ukraine war, alongside ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, is veering into increasingly perilous and unpredictable territory.